Corn – Fund buying slowed yesterday, the market appears unable to hold current levels with out them
↓ Volume backed off as well as the traditional signs we look for when seeing if funds are in the market, this slowdown in fund buying meant the market by itself eased likely from normal harvest pressure
↔Tough to estimate what shorts funds have left, as of 10 days ago they were short 37% of record but they have been active buyers since then, a guesstimate might assume 10% - 15% of record shorts now
↔Exports slightly positive yesterday, on the year exports still at -6% last year, USDA estimate +5%
↑ Still expect better general support in corn compared to beans/wheat leading to the Oct 11th report due to the 83 mil bushel lower than expected Quarterly Stocks report
Beans – Exports yesterday moderate, fund buying slowed, SA maps the same as the previous 3 days
↔Exports yesterday were moderate at 1445K, USDA’s estimate for exports is -5% compared to last year and so actual sales are -22%, yesterday’s number by itself was -3%
↓ Fund buying slowed yesterday allowing for an easing back, we will see if they return today
↔No change to SA maps, still showing light rains for ARG and moderate rains for BRA in the 10 day
↑ Bean oil made a new high for the move last night which may be supporting beans in overnight trade
↔The 10 day forecast remains clear for 10 days with the exception of light rains in IL this morning
Wheat – Exports moderate, some cooling off from recent buying excitement, funds slow
↔Exports moderate at 444K, USDA estimate on the year -2% to last year, currently EVEN with last year
↓ Trade became very concerned about global weather earlier this week with concerns in the US, Russia, Ukraine and Australia, some of that larger scale concerned buying slowed yesterday, including funds
Cattle – As far as bids from major packers go there was once again only a single bid of steady in NE
↓ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.01 select -0.64 packer BE at 185.13, packer cushion $0.02
↔There was some talk of regional packers bidding as high as 188 yesterday but the only packer bid was from a major was once again 186.50 (steady) in NE
↔Regional packer bids can involve special cattle that are the normal grading, for example that bid could be on 90% graded choice all black cattle, this is why futures don’t react much to regional bids
↔Packer bids nearly silent all week and that should not surprise us, any cattle bought this week will be for the largest losses of the year, why would they want to bid actively and aggressively in that scenario?