Corn – Exports expected strong at 1250K – 2700K, record ethanol report yesterday, following beans
↑ Export are expected strong to very strong today, today would be the 5th strong week in a row
↑ Yesterday’s ethanol at 1113K was a record best for a 1 week report
↔Corn is following beans but obviously holding in much better support as March is only 8 cents under fair value while beans and wheat are much further under their fair value levels
↑ Overall demand remains very strong for corn, the USDA has figures factored in that suggests it will slow eventually but for now both exports and ethanol are above USDA expectations
Beans – Exports expected strong at 1000K – 2300K, that is the analyst number, traders thinking lower
↑ Analysts are looking for another strong bean export number today but recent trade suggests that traders are looking for a much lower number, either today or in the weeks ahead
↑ Crush is out at 11 AM today and is expected strong at 196.843 mil bu
↔The style of selling hints that it could be fund related, we will see if that appears on the COT report, as of last week they were short 70K or 38% of record
↔Jan fair value remains at 1035 which already factors in a small export decline, that shows just how pessimistic traders are about future exports, factoring in not just a setback but a major slow down
Wheat – Exports expected moderate at 250K – 600K, small reduction in rain coverage, dollar easing
↔This is the one market where analysts are only expecting a moderate export report today
↑ There was a small reduction in rainfall totals for the next HRW system
↑ After a major rally the US dollar is easing slightly in overnight trade
Cattle – More $1 to $3 lower cash trades, BB continues lower very close to 9 month lows
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -3.14 select -2.00 packer BE at 184.30, packer cushion -$3.12
↓ BB continues lower, just like last week Monday saw a 1 day BB bounce and every other day is lower
↓ Choice + Select is at 580, the 9 month low is 578, 1 more report that is lower could take that out
↔Futures finished yesterday pricing in cash at -$1.50 which still might be slightly conservative as the average cash trade looks like it will be closer to $2 lower this week
↔Feb is now lead contract and where all orders should be placed going forward unless specifically covering cash trades short term
↔Feb held recent lows yesterday with that last nearby support level being 184.40