Corn – Exports expected slightly slow today around 1400K, ethanol at a new record Wednesday
↓ Trade is expecting a slight slowdown in exports today around 1400K, this follows a recent 2 week slowdown with last week at 1495K
↑ Wednesday's ethanol report was a new record at 1119K
↓ It is likely that we will see continued cautious trade as many are concerned about the recent export slowdown and what may happen to exports after tariffs take place
↔Outside markets are seeing moderate activity in overnight trade, we may see the same for grains where trade quickly reacts to exports but then volume quickly slows up to the noon close
Beans – Exports expected strong around 2000K, even on seeing this trade likely to remain cautious
↑ Exports are expected strong today around 2000K continuing a streak of 6 weeks of strong exports
↓ Just like corn, trade is likely to remain cautious even on seeing strong exports as most are concerned about upcoming tariff increases to China which may slow their buying pace down the road
↓ Trade continues to be more concerned about bean exports as compared to corn, Jan beans are priced 4.47% under fair value while March corn is priced 2.73% under fair value
↑ Jan has found better support in the 970’s, posting 5 lows in that area in 4 months and holding
Wheat – Exports are expected moderate around 400K, wheat more underpriced than any grain
↔Despite recent strong exports today is expected moderate around 400K
↓ March CHI wheat is the grain market that is furthest from fair value, priced 6.14% under what the most recent carryout would suggest as fair value, some of this is due to the strong GTE rating
Cattle – BB eases slightly, cash trades nothing short of amazing Wednesday, largest packer loss ever
↔Wednesday’s PM BB was choice -0.31 select -1.19 packer BE at 185.92, packer cushion -$0.59
↔BB does have early signs it may be recovering but Wednesday it stepped back again slightly
↑ Yesterday’s cash trades were nothing short of amazing with quite a few reports of 190 in all areas which is $3.50 over last week’s cash trade
↔That 190 cash trade estimates around a -$4 packer gross profit level, the lowest we have seen since tracking that figure and truly surprising to see especially on a week with a +22K showlist
↔On Wednesday’s close futures were still priced at a level that assumes cash at 188, is trade now a bit cautious staying under the last cash trade level due to a seasonal pullback expected the next 2 weeks?