Corn – No 8 AM sales seen since Nov 13th, weekly sales slow slightly, support expected around 430
↓ Last week’s total sales were down slightly at 1495K and we haven’t seen an 8 AM sale of corn posted since November 13th, trade may be switching its export fear focus over to corn
↔So far the export fear trade is on much smaller scale than in beans, support expected to quickly step in around 430 which is also the March price where we have seen a pickup in 8 AM reports
↔Funds were buyers of 5K corn but that is a slow enough pace to not offer much influence
↔Volume is likely to slow this week being the Thanksgiving week, funds also likely to slow
Beans – Export fear still priced in but both weekly/8 AM sales recently strong, SA weather still solid
↑ It may seem hard to believe but fair value for Jan is still 1035 and exports have not slowed enough to change that level, this means all that is needed for a moderate recovery is export fear to ease
↓ Funds were sellers of 13K, now short 52K or 36% of record, not a major move seen from them yet
↓ SA weather maps have yet another 10 days with a forecast looking very solid for both BRA/ARG
↔Recent 8 AM sales reports have been strong enough that we can already factor in that the weekly export report on Friday will be strong, so far at this point the export fear selling appears overdone
Wheat – The US dollar cooled off last night but pressure still seen in overnight, still in a downtrend
↓ While the US dollar eased back from Friday’s highs last night it is still at a very strong level and could be one of the main causes for the pressure overnight
↓ Funds sold 6K, now short 52K or 32% record, funds selling for 5 weeks now but generally slowly
↓ The recent recovery in March CHI took it to a downtrend line but that line held, trend is still lower
Cattle – Uneventful COF report, surprising end to last week’s cash trade, BB slightly lower again
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +0.62 select -0.85 packer BE at 183.98, packer cushion -$1.19
↓ Friday’s COF report was mostly uneventful but slightly bearish with Placements at 105.3, if traders last week were expecting a bullish surprise they instead got a slightly bearish one
↔It will be very tough to estimate last week’s average cash trade as it started with 3 days of trading cattle at 184 but on Friday saw cash trade anywhere from 185 – 188
↔BB continues offering 1 day bounces but has not put together enough to call it a recovery, packer profits are still going to start the week sub $0