Corn – Analysts looking for poor exports of 825K, still saw signs of fund short covering yesterday
↓ Analysts are expecting poor exports today of 825K, last week was very poor at 535K
↑ We are seeing corn hold best support most days on 2 factors: 1) Fund short covering which has recently been almost daily 2) Expectation of a much lower carryout on the October 11th crop report
↔It is tough to estimate exactly where funds are with short positions, as of Tuesday the 24th they were short 131K or 37% of record, since then they have been active buyers, a current guess is 15% - 20%
↔Yesterday’s ethanol was moderate at 1015K, that report continues at a steady/moderate pace
Beans – Analysts looking for moderate exports of 1325K, that would keep year long pace below USDA
↓ Analysts looking for moderate exports at 1325K, initially moderate doesn’t sound like bad news but bean exports are still not meeting USDA pace so there is a chance exports could be lowered on the 11th
↓ Overnight traders are likely more focused on SA weather than day session traders, ARG still sees moderate rains in the 1 – 5 day while BRA sees moderate rains in the 6 – 10 day
↔Again today the 10 day forecast has virtually no rain at all for any harvesting areas
↔Fund short covering is still being seen in beans but yesterday it was mostly quiet until the close
Wheat – Concerns now in the US, Russia, Ukraine and Australia
↑ Dryness concern continues in HRW areas with still no rain at all in the 10 day outlook
↑ Dryness concerns are also picking up for Russia and Ukraine
↑ A cold snap in Australia had some analysts lowering production estimates 1.5 MMT for that area
↓ Most of the above stories were talked about yesterday, overnight seemed to cool off a bit
Cattle – A drastic turn to extreme optimism, NE cash bid yesterday was steady, BB was lower
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.36 select -1.37 packer BE at 185.34, packer cushion $0.23
↑ There was a single “steady money” cash bid in NE and futures raced to $3.50 over last week’s cash
↔This market has good from moderate pessimism to extreme optimism in just 2 weeks
↓ The BB report was lower yesterday after a 2 day bounce, remember that BB saw a 2 day bounce early last week but then moved to new lows just after that, for a true “bounce” we need to see 3 days higher
↔The NE cash bid at steady was better than expected but not sure it justifies futures being $3.50 over last week’s cash it is honestly difficult to tell where this extreme optimism comes from, funds?