Corn – Ethanol expected moderate to strong, may see technical and “what if” support
↑ Ethanol recovered last week to a solid 1057K and may be expected again near that level this week
↑ We may start to see bargain buyers step in and some buying on a “what if the USDA doesn’t raise acreage as much as expected?” type of small support leading to the report
↓ 10 day weather maps are still very solid, some heat but wide coverage of moderate rains
↔ With Dec now making 2 ½ year lows we can expect any slide to slow, taking away gains is one thing but much more selling will be needed to press price under 441 now
Beans – Some crush plants back running quicker than expected, also finding some bargain buying
↑ Just as with corn, at prices this low going into a USDA report we are bound to see some bargainbuyers just in case the USDA doesn’t raise acreage as much as expected
↔ Some crush plants were expected to remain offline for a while in MN due to flooding but one major crusher in Mankato was reported to already be back up and running yesterday
↑ The round number of 1100 in Nov should attract a few more bargain buyers as well
↔ At some point this recent price break should see an uptick in exports, let’s watch closely for that
Wheat – Harvest pressure likely to continue through this week, downside price targets reached
↓ We can still expect harvest pressure through this week as HRW harvest remains active
↔ Russia is just starting on harvest, trade may watch closely how yields look once harvest reaches the area of frost concern from earlier this year
↔ In the next 1 – 2 weeks we are likely to see attention turn away from US harvest and over to RU
Cattle – Trade priced assuming a steady cash trade, conservative trading still being seen in futures
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.75 Select +0.19 packer BE at 199.60, packer cushion $9.05
↔ Futures have pre priced in a steady cash trade, this means it is equally prepared to move higher or lower based on what we see for starting bids
↔ Futures trade remains on the conservative side, not going out much more than $3 above or below cash even on extreme events
↑ BB continues to grind higher and as our #1 fundamental factor, continues to suggest slow support
↓ We should expect more resistance in August above 185 as that level is new 8 month highs