Corn – Still seeing both regular pressure but also better support around 400, are funds selling again?
↓ There continues to be regular pressure of larger scale, likely from harvest pressure (and funds?)
↑ At the same time there is much better support being seen with Dec near 400, that support is likely coming from speculators, cattle feed yard corn buying hedges, and Mexico buying 2 MMT yesterday
↔Once again it needs to be mentioned that some of the selling could be fund related, we have the volume spikes we typically see, a major open interest increase, and we have already seen funds work to a nearly flat position back in May just to turn around and build a new record short again
Beans – Seeing 8 AM sales but nothing that stands out, overnight makes new lows for the move
↓ Beans continue to see 8 AM sales but not a large scale purchase that stands out, this means overnight traders don’t have a predictable reason to be pre buying
↓ Overnight made new lows for the move leaving next chart support at contract lows of 955
↓ It is most likely that influence is coming from harvest pressure but, like corn, may also be fund selling
↑ The recent crush report is sign of a demand increase now that November has been near or under 1000 but more is needed to halt the recent active selling and even more needed for a bounce
↔SA maps have a lot of needed rainfall both for BRA and ARG, limiting concerns of dryness there
Wheat – HRW areas still see chances for moderate rains, exports will be important tomorrow
↓ HRW rains are about the same this morning as yesterday on the forecast maps, moderate rains with moderate coverage, nothing problem solving but still a needed step towards improvement
↔Tomorrow’s exports will be an influence, recent export reports have been strong, last week 439K
↔Last week’s COT report showed funds selling wheat again, is that an indicator for corn/beans?
Cattle – There was an IA cash trade of 186 late yesterday (last week average 187.32), BB higher
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +2.30 select +0.28 packer BE at 194.15, packer cushion $7.19
↓ IA traded cash late yesterday to a major for 186, it’s possible some in trade were expecting this which explains the recent round of caution being seen, we will see what other trades we get today
↔BB continues higher finally bringing packer profits back to $7, now at a more neutral level
↔We should certainly still expect packers to start with a low bid each week, it looks like at least our first cash trade to a major took a slightly lower bid, will be watching for more trades today