Corn – Funds cover 63K shorts, now short 68K or 19% of record, still a clear 10 day forecast for harvest
↔Funds covered a large 63K shorts and that number was as of Tuesday, they covered shorts Wednesday and half of Thursday as well, they might be close to truly flat by now
↓ Funds took half of Thursday off from buying and all of Friday, this is slightly bearish because without their constant support which we have seen since early July, regular harvest pressure may take over
↓ The forecast is still clear for 90% of harvest areas over the next 10 days
↑ Some general support is still expected ahead of the report on Friday, it’s unlikely the USDA will lower carryout the full 83 mil bu that was seen on Quarterly Stocks but it will likely be some level of lower
Beans – Funds cover 40K shorts, now short 35K or 19% of record, 10 day SA rains increased
↔Just like corn, funds cover a large amount of shorts and as of this morning might be down to around 10% of record, a small enough position they might just call it flat and remain on the sidelines
↓ Also like corn, without fund short covering harvest pressure may cause regular daily light pressure
↓ While we don’t think SA forecast maps had a large amount to do with the rally it should be noted that their rainfall forecast the next 10 days showed a significant increase last night/this morning
↔Bean oil cooled off Friday but is still strong and one to watch short term for influence on beans
Wheat – Funds buyers of 3K, likely still some concern about HRW dryness as well as overseas
↔Funds now short 23K which for wheat is certainly a level they may consider to be flat
↑ Still no rain in the 10 day HRW forecast may keep some supportive concern in the market
↔Trade will also be watching overseas forecasts which last night did see small increases in rain
Cattle – Cash trades in NE at 187 – 188, futures likely to start with support on that news, BB higher
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +2.78 select +4.32 packer BE at 187.39, packer cushion $2.28
↑ Packers paid higher despite the low gross profits, reports of 187 – 188 trades in NE, nothing reported in KS/TX, slaughter was estimated to have slowed but not by a drastic amount
↔BB bounced Friday likely due to slower slaughter but still brings packer gross profits back to $2
↔NE reported cash trades $1.50 higher but there was nothing reported at all from KS/TX, this may mean cash trades there were not as strong so the nationwide average may be close to $1 higher
↑ Funds bought 11K cattle, now long 63K or 41% of record, funds are slowly building a long position