Corn – GTE -1% at 67%, heat moves in but after most pollination will be finished, possible fund buying
↔ GTE being down 1% is not a surprise as GTE ratings typically fall slowly through the year
↔ There is heat in the forecast but most pollination should be complete before it starts up
↔ There were volume spikes to hint that yesterday saw light fund short covering, the open interest report was not as clear though, over all it hints towards yes but can’t say for sure
↓ First chart resistance is at 416 1/2 , following that would be 426 ½, both fairly minor levels
↔ Current fair value is 420 – 430 based on the most recent carryout numbers
Beans – GTE unchanged at 68%, heat still moves in days 6 – 15 along with drier maps to start August
↔ GTE left unchanged at 68% is actually a bit strong but most traders are looking forward
↑ Morning maps show heat starting today for extreme northwest areas but across most growing areas days 6 – 15 along with a drier bias today as well, this looks out to the start of August
↑ As far as funds, yesterday did hint towards light short covering and the open interest report backs that up slightly being down 3K
↔ First chart resistance is not seen until near 1100, also current fair value is 1100 - 1150
Wheat – Spring wheat 77% GTE, winter harvest at 76%, overseas slightly lower last night
↓ Spring wheat GTE at 77% may cause that market to have more general resistance than KC/CHI
↔ Winter harvest is wrapping up, we already saw an easing of harvest pressure a week and a half ago
↓ Much of US trade’s focus has gone back to overseas trade and that trade was lower again last night
Cattle – PM BB slightly lower, showlist -14,500, average cash trade yesterday slightly better than exp
↓ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.39 Select -0.47 packer BE at 194.51, packer cushion $1.72
↓ The AM BB was higher but PM BB was lower again taking packer profits to a low not seen since early May and down to a level that is very difficult to expect a higher cash trade this week
↔ Showlist is -14,500 but again, packer profits near $2 still suggests this week’s lower numbers may not be enough to suggest a higher cash trade
↑ Last week’s average cash trade was slightly stronger than expected at 190.52 which was +0.67
↓ Every time this year packer profits fell to $2 or lower, we saw a lower cash trade that week