Corn – Dec in the 420’s is finding resistance, exports expected moderate, fund trading patterns
↓ The last 2 days have seen more resistance once Dec makes it into the fair value level of the 420’s
↔Exports have been running mostly moderate lately and that will be expected again today
↑ Seeing support from 8:30 to around 10:30 then that support slowing is a typical sign of fund trading although the open interest report still hasn’t moved lower to give the added evidence of fund buying
↔For the most part trade has moved away from reacting to weather although corn can still see spill over influence from beans when weather maps make a sizable change
Beans – Rains similar to yesterday, heat reduced further, exports expected moderate
↓ Rains were unchanged from yesterday while morning maps reduced heat in the 15 day forecast
↔All week we have seen beans react quickly and actively from each weather map update as we would expect when looking out to an August forecast, we should expect that to continue for a couple weeks
↔One forecaster suggested that while heat can be put in the forecast it will have a tough time lasting long and so far that is what the GFS maps have shown, slowly reducing heat yesterday and today
↔Exports were strong last week at 741K but most will be expecting a moderate 500K – 600K today
Wheat – Overseas trade down slightly last night, it is possible funds may be short covering wheat
↓ Overseas trade was slightly lower last night so our US overnight market followed
↑ The last couple of days we have seen better support after 8:30 which might be a sign of fund short covering as they are short 76K or 47% of record in wheat, open interest is also declining in CHI wheat
↔Exports will be expected moderate today 500K – 600K
Cattle – BB lower every day this week, futures trade appearing a bit more optimistic, no cash bids yet
↓ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.53 Select -2.70 packer BE at 192.61, packer cushion $2.09
↓ Boxed beef down each day this week and down 12 of the last 15 trading days
↔There has been talk of light cash trades $2 lower but no official reports that trade tends to focus on
↔With futures still priced $2.50 under cash it would not be accurate to say trade has become optimistic but narrowing the gap does suggest they are less cautious than previous weeks
↔We will see what we get for first official cash bids but trade may be expecting steady cash this week