Corn – Better support again near 410, less outside market influence today, more 8 AM sales expected
↑ Just like the last setback we saw better support yesterday as corn moved closer to 410, we will see if this also means more/larger 8 AM sales as it did last time as well
↑ It is likely there will be some who missed buying the last pullback and will place their orders slightly higher this time around to not miss out, that’s why better support is expected near 410 rather than 400
↔Crude/outside markets offered some spill over pressure yesterday which is cooling off today
↔Harvest is at 81% (5 year average 64%), trade will consider it “done” now unless a major weather event is seen but there are no major events in the forecast until day 6
Beans – Fewer recent 8 AM sales but trade will expect that to pick up with Jan at/under 990
↑ Recently there have been fewer 8 AM sales for beans but trade will expect that to turn around at price levels of Jan under 990
↔Harvest is at 89% (5 year average 78%) most trades placed now can consider harvest “done”
↔This is the time of year trade focuses on SA weather but few are talking about it as this morning both BRA and ARG see solid rains with ARG seeing an increase in the 10 day outlook
↔As a reminder of Jan levels the recent low is 980 ¾ and contract low is 973 ½
Wheat – Caught up in macro selling yesterday which is easing today, major Plains weather event
↔Wheat looks to have been caught up in some macro selling yesterday which eased overnight
↔There is a major weather event for the Plains on days 6 – 10, there are 2 back to back systems from the TX panhandle to IA/WI and reaching as far as Canada, top end totals in the Plains 8” to 11”
↑ Support may not be as solid as corn/beans but still expected due to recent strong weekly exports
Cattle – Average cash was as expected, BB lower, no showlist was posted yesterday
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.26 select -2.90 packer BE at 196.00, packer cushion $5.28
↔Last week all areas cash average was 190.20 which was +2.32 for the week, mostly as expected
↔BB continues to be choppy, up on one report then back down, that has been the pattern now for just over a week, we will continue waiting for a new trend before expecting BB influence again
↔I did not see a showlist posted yesterday, that may leave trade slightly uncertain as to what to expect this week, we don’t know yet if recent slaughter slowdown means a higher showlist this week
↑ On no news trade is likely to keep a slightly bullish bias, following the recent 5 week trend