Corn – A small amount of overnight fear trade on election results, ethanol expected strong today
↓ We knew that a Trump victory would be seen as bearish on fear of slowed exports and that is exactly what overnight is reacting to, we will see if there is less of this fear after 8:30
↑ Ethanol should be strong again today, likely close to last week’s 1082K
↑ Average estimate for Friday’s carryout from the USDA is expecting a 53 mil bu decline
↔Dec and March corn are both well within their recent range which is a range that could continue for 2 months unless there is a surprise on Friday’s report
Beans – A large amount of overnight fear on election results, Jan not far from first chart support
↓ Beans have been the target of election fear selling for days so there is no surprise to see beans down as much as they are in overnight, especially knowing it is overnight traders doing the selling
↔The overnight move lower puts Jan beans close to first chart support of 977 ¼, following that would be contract lows of 973 ½
↔Recent 8 AM sales have slowed but last week’s weekly total was quite strong at 2273K, we will see if tomorrow's weekly number comes in as strong which could cool off some of today’s fear selling
Wheat – Also tied to fear selling, unlikely exports for wheat will be affected, Plains rains continue
↓ Given that overnight traders watch wheat more than other grains, no surprise to see fear here as well
↓ The 2nd rain system has a different coverage path, now remaining over the Plains for most of the event which expands the coverage for HRW areas and raises totals
↔Of all frain markets, it is most unlikely that election results would affect wheat exports
Cattle – BB lower again yesterday, trade remains cautious, pre pricing in a cash trade $1 lower
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.30 select -1.92 packer BE at 191.28, packer cushion $1.28
↓ BB higher Monday but lower yesterday, keeping packer profits very low near $1
↔Futures are already pre pricing in a $1 lower cash trade and with BB not yet recovering, that is entirely possible this week, we will see what first cash bids are today
↔With packer profits near $1 we may see a 12K slowdown in slaughter to offset the -12K showlist
↔Election reactions should be minimal for cattle, only likely affected if outside markets make a violent enough move to cause an effect, worth noting that Dow futures are +1311 at the time of this writing