Beans expecting a carryout decline of 18 mil bu Friday

Corn – Exports expected strong at 1700K – 2550K, a little more pre buying possible ahead of Friday

↑ Exports expected strong again to go along with the further improved ethanol report seen yesterday

↑ If Friday’s report shows the expected 53 mil bu decline in carryout then it suggests a fair price of 430 rather than current 420, we may see a little more pre buying ahead of the report for Dec to reach 430

↔There were no 8 AM sales seen yesterday, one of trade’s recent concerns is that exports would slow after the election, we will need to keep watching for 8 AM sales to see if this is true

↔Fund trade has been choppy the last 4 weeks, as a whole they have not been major influence lately

Beans – Exports expected strong at 1200K – 2300K, trade backing away from export fears

↑ Exports expected strong today again, close to last week’s 2273K

↑ Beans expecting a carryout decline of 18 mil bu Friday which may mean additional pre buying could be seen, fair value may be raised from 1015 to 1025 (Jan)

↔Like corn, we will need to watch 8 AM sales, if we do not see any for 3 or more days trade may become fearful again next week that exports are going to slow post election

↔↑ BRA continues to see solid rains but the 10 day forecast for ARG is drier this morning

Wheat – Exports expected poor to moderate at 150K – 550K, still solid Plains rains in the forecast

↓↔ Exports are expected poor to moderate today, likely any number under 400K will be seen as poor

↔The beginnings of the 2nd Plains rain system is starting up today, forecast still has solid rains for northern TX, all of OK and KS and southern NE

↔Dec CHI wheat has gone back to 2 weeks of a sideways move, choppy but overall sideways

Cattle – BB lower again, packer profits near yearlong lows, some Dow related buying might ease

↓ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.62 select -2.04 packer BE at 190.12, packer cushion $0.12

↔Yesterday bounced following the large move higher in the Dow on the potential long term impact that a rallying Dow and improving economy may mean improved beef demand

↓ BB is showing that the “right now” factors are poor and getting worse, packer profits almost to $0 and close to the low of the year, it is very difficult to expect packers to be aggressive or active buyers

↔Yesterday’s bounce assumes a 0.50 lower cash trade this week, current BB levels support that thought or even lower, with packer profits this low it is possible we may not see a cash bid today