Corn – Carryout Friday was exactly as traders expected, funds +44K, light harvest pressure continues
↔Analysts were looking for a supportive report Friday but traders left price at a level that assumed around a 2.000 bil carryout and the actual number Friday was 1.999
↔Funds covered 44K shorts, now short 24K or 7% record, it is now fair to call them “flat” and they may spend more time on the sidelines like they did through the 2nd half of last week
↓ If funds remain quiet that will take away support we have been seeing for 10 weeks and allow normal harvest pressure to cause slow moves lower, it is likely we have 2 – 3 weeks of harvest pressure left
↔It is Columbus Day and while trade is open, there will be no government reports today
Beans – Carryout Friday also what traders were expecting, funds +13K, harvest pressure over soon
↔Friday’s soybean carryout of 0.550 was what both analysts and traders had expected
↔Funds bought 13K, now short 22K or 12% of record, like corn they are essentially flat
↓ Harvest pressure may step in like we are seeing in corn but for this market the pressure may only last another 1 – 2 weeks, until harvest approaches 80% complete
↔If next week’s harvest pace passes 75% THEN we would look for more attention to turn to SA weather but that may still hold off through this week, BRA sees moderate rains, ARG light rains
Wheat – HRW areas finally see moderate rains in the 6 – 10 day map, funds sell 6K, exports strong
↓ HRW areas finally see moderate rains in the 6 – 10 day forecast
↔Funds sold 6K, now short 29K, not a sign yet that they are looking to sell again but worth watching
↑ Last week’s exports remained strong at 439K, may help to keep some support in the wheat market
Cattle – BB turned lower in the afternoon report, funds buyers of 14K, major resistance close by
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +1.27 select -2.01 packer BE at 189.49, packer cushion $4.37
↑ Funds bought 14K on the COT report, now long 77K or 50% of record, after not being much of a factor in cattle for almost 2 years, funds are now likely one of the better supporters of this market
↔This year packer profits near $4 may be considered “moderate” for packers, still working at a loss but not as bad as seen in previous weeks, BB still needs to be watched daily
↓ Two major resistance levels are not far away, the 6 month high 190.075 and the 12 month at 191.625
↔Last week’s average cash likely $1 higher, futures finished Friday priced $3.50 higher