Corn – Analysts expecting exports moderate, likely that traders are expecting a poor number today
↔Analysts are looking for a moderate export number today around 1225K
↓ Traders are likely expecting a poor export number closer to 1000K or lower
↔We may still see pre report buying ahead of Tuesday but without seeing at least some 8 AM sales
that bounce might be limited, trade’s largest concern right now is exports slowing
↔CIF basis levels have been slowly moving higher but was steady yesterday, seasonally we look for
basis to improve to mid Dec then set back again but if exports slow early then basis could as well
Beans – Analysts expect strong exports today, traders may have some doubts, improved ARG weather
↑ Analysts are expecting exports strong around 1800K, personally we feel it could be 2000K+
↓ Traders continue to take a pessimistic view on exports, likely expecting exports today to be under
1800K or expecting that next week may see a slowdown
↔Regular 8 AM sales are needed to hold back the negative export outlook by most traders
↓ BRA still sees solid rains but this morning saw an increase for ARG in the 10 day outlook
↔It might be tough to find a significant bounce while SA weather continues to look good but being 50
cents under fair value already factors in a sizeable SA crop so lower moves from here should be difficult
Wheat – Exports expected moderate, Russia wheat ratings the lowest in 23 years
↔Exports expected moderate today around 400K
↑ Russia’s wheat rating is 37% poor which is the lowest rating seen in 23 years
↓ Wheat recovered yesterday but first posted new contract lows in March CHI at 540 ¼
Cattle – Starting NE bids are 187, BB still sideways/choppy, talk of a slaughter shutdown for 1 day
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.50 select +2.37 packer BE at 186.06, packer cushion -$3.79
↔First NE cash bids from a major packer were 187 in NE yesterday, last week average for NE 190.59
↔The above would warrant a down arrow except futures are already factoring in a 188 trade
↔BB just a fraction lower yesterday but would still be called sideways over the last 2 weeks
↓ Late yesterday saw a headline “Sources indicate one Neb. major has cancelled tomorrow's slaughter
due to breakdown”, that may slow cash bids in NE today
↔It just so happens that when packers are at their largest losses ever a plant was shut down in KS (not
a major one) and a breakdown halts slaughter for a day