Corn – Analysts expect exports moderate at 1500K, likely that trade is concerned it might be lower
↔Analysts are expecting corn exports this morning at a moderate level of 1500K
↓ The end of yesterday’s session and the overnight small move lower suggests that once again traders
are likely cautious that exports will slow drastically this week just as they have feared the last 5 weeks
↔Yesterday’s ethanol maintained a solid report of 1078K
↔We know that new fair value is at 470 even if it takes some time to get there, we don’t know yet
where to expect support on pullbacks, previously that level was 430
Beans – Analysts expect exports strong at 1850K, like corn traders are likely thinking a lower number
↑ Analysts are looking for exports to be strong today at 1850K
↓ Just as we have seen the previous 5 weeks, traders are leaving price at a level that assumes poor
exports of 1000K or lower
↔SA weather still looks solid in the 10 day forecast, active rains for BRA and moderate rains for ARG
↑ Recently (and again last night) support has been around 990 in Jan, resistance quickly seen at 1000
↔Trade is likely to become more cautious the more days we do not see 8 AM sales
Wheat – analysts expect exports strong at 310K, wheat exports seasonally slow drastically right now
↑ Exports are expected at 310K which doesn’t sound like much but seasonally exports typically slow
drastically for wheat right now so if a number of 310K is seen it will be a strong report
↔Unlike corn/beans, traders don’t seem to feel as cautious over exports in this market
↔There is some talk of concern over Russian exports but so far no solid numbers showing a slowdown,
Ukraine’s exports are ahead of last year’s pace
Cattle – Cash trades of 193 up to 195, possible new record cash trade, new record packer losses
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.50 select -1.54 packer BE at 187.12, packer cushion -$3.73
↑ Cash traded 193 up to 195 in NE yesterday, the weekly average will either be close or slightly above
the previous all time weekly average cash trade level of 194.03
↔BB has been slowly grinding higher but nowhere near the pace packers are paying higher cash so this
means another week of new record beef slaughter losses for packers
↔2 major questions to consider right now: 1) Just what level will packers lose $$$ and continue paying
higher cash and 2) Will the $200 level halt the futures move higher as it has done twice before?