Tariffs: Over the weekend President Trump announced 25% import tariffs on products from Mexico and Canada and 10% for products from China. Today both Trump and the Mexican president announced a one month stay on their tariffs. Trump had a conversation with the Canadian president at 2 pm Central today. We do not have word on any outcome of that conversation. The White House spokesperson noted he plans to speak with the Chinese president in the next two days. For wheat this story is moderately positive. Though Mexico is our largest export buyer we are not sure how much a tariff would have restricted their interest. This is a well-established trade.

AgLeaders Conference: The January edition of the AgLeaders Conference series wrapped up last week. For 2025 we see US wheat acreage at 46.2 million. That would be +0.1 from last year. USDA reported winter wheat plantings up a surprising +0.7 million. We expect other spring + durum -0.6. Assuming trend yield, it is far too early to start moving yields off trend either way, production would run -79 million from last year to 1.893 billion. With a larger beginning stock we'll still have larger production, +28 million in this case. We see ending stocks moving from 798 million USDA old crop to 816. Now, that is one balance sheet and it would give a shot at $6.00. However, we will suggest we'll see a change in exports among competitors. We may see this balance sheet tighten up by 50 million bushels. There is also the chance at below normal yields for the US, Russia and Ukaine in the new crop picture. Now it is time to plan out the year ahead with your Allendale marketing specialist.

Extended US Moisture Situation: At the end of the month NOAA updates only their one month out forecast. You may remember the prior general story for the year was dryness moving into the western half of the Plains this spring. For this month of February-only we will point out NOAA reduced their prior dryness forecast for hard red. For soft red areas though, they left that unchanged with above normal rains.

Larger Australian Harvest: Four analysts polled by Reuters newswire noted a higher wheat production estimate than before. Now at 32 - 35.5 million tonnes, they are over the 29 - 34.5 view from a prior Reuters survey. USDA's latest is 32.

Lowered Russian Export View, Again: Last week SovEcon suggested Russia's old crop July 2024 - June 2025 wheat exports would only run 43.7 million tonnes. This would be a further decline from last year's record 55.5 export. It was a big deal as it was a bit tighter than USDA's 46.0 current view. USDA's number itself is supportive. It would drop their remaining February - June exports to only 16.4. That is a full 9.0 from last year. Then last week's SovEcon number, 43.7, would further push the deficit to -11.3. But it get's even better. SovEcon this morning just posted a revision down to 42.8. This drops their exports over the next five months of a -12.2 deficit. Russia's exports during this time could fall -48% from last year.

Higher Russian and Ukraine Pricing: Ukraine wheat prices for export are now at the highest offering of the year. Prices for Russian wheat are now the highest since June. This is the start of the expected decline in old crop exports for those two major competitors.

No New US Export Business: Weekly US wheat export sales Thursday showed no new export business. The needed goal just to meet USDA is -1% from average now through May. This week was -14%. The prior eight weeks before that were -16%. Not only are we not seeing new business from rising RUS/UKR pricing, we are not even at the pace needed to hit USDA's current whole-year export view. We can also note new crop bookings, delivery June 1 on out, are incredibly low.

Micro Grain Futures: CME Group announced a plan to start a new series grain futures contracts. Starting on February 24 they will start contracts 1/10th the size of regular ones. This will include corn, soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and wheat.

Argentina Cuts Export Taxes: Two week ago the Argentine government announced a reduction in export taxes. This will be temporary and lasts through June. The current 12% rate for wheat falls to 9.5% through June. For wheat, a slight adjustment is not a major story. USDA currently sees their current year export at 11.5 million tonnes. Argentina is world's #7 exporter with a 5% share of world activity.

Chart: Prices are off their major lows. New for the discussion, wheat futures are holding an upside breakout. Chicago and KC broke above the prior highs from the 1/22 failed rally, 566 3/4 and 586, last week. Today's close was the second best of this minor uptrend...Rich Nelson