Corn – Planting 36% (39% ave), maps still suggest clearing west of the MS river after today
↔Planting fell behind the normal pace as expected, the 36% pace was likely close to trade’s thought
↓ There is another rain system moving through today but then a clearing days 2 – 10 for most areas west of the MS river which is currently the area trade is most concerned with
↓ Early estimates for Friday’s first new crop report are out and are starting at 2.282 (2.122 last year)
↑ Yesterday showed signs of fund short covering again, it is possible they may take some time off short term to allow for a setback and Friday’s report but even if they do, they have 218K shorts to cover yet
↓ Dec is expected to run into major resistance in the 490’s as hedge pressure picks up close to 500
Beans – Planting 25% (21% ave), clearing in forecast, first estimates for new crop carryout are high
↓ Planting at 25% was likely not as much of a slow down as many in trade had expected
↔Anyone reading this who is planting knows the recent trend is to planting beans first but many in trade are not aware of this so their reaction would be to sell this seemingly fast paced number
↓ First estimates for new crop carryout on Friday are large at 439 (old crop last year at 340)
↑ Yesterday did show signs of fund short covering but there is reason why funds would cover bean shorts much slower than corn with that first carryout estimate of 439
↔There could be concern over BRA flooding although bean losses are still expected to be minimal
Wheat – Planting 47% (31% ave), HRW GTE +1% at 50%, first new crop carryout also expected high
↓ Planting was likely faster than trade had expected at 47%
↓ GTE was expected to remain unchanged but increased 1% to 50%
↓ First carryout estimates for new crop are at 782 compared to last year’s old crop number of 698
Cattle – Solid BB bounce, showlist -36K, good start for assuming higher cash, more BB support needed
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +4.56 Select +2.10 packer BE at 186.85, packer cushion $2.59
↑ Strong BB bounce seen yesterday, good start but so far it’s just 1 day after 2 months of grinding lower
↑ Showlist -36K, similar to BB this is a solid number but it comes after 2 weeks of lower showlists first
↔BB has bounced just enough to keep up with the pace of packers paying higher cash, this is why yesterday’s packer profits was $2.38 and after factoring in higher cash last week it is still $2.59
↔The above statement shows again how important BB is right now, IF the BB can continue higher then packers can continue to bid cash strong, it is needed just as much as the lower showlist is needed