Corn – Fund buying may have slowed, forecast improved days 1 – 8, Friday’s report likely bearish
↔Yesterday showed early support but on much lower volume showing fund short covering slowed
↓ If fund buying slows there is likely not many others willing to buy corn ahead of Friday’s expected new crop carryout of 2.284, this could mean a drift lower into the report
↓ Maps are not clear but are improved days 1 – 8 before another system moves in days 9 – 10
↔An early estimate if carryout is seen at 2.284 is a December final price of 3.80 – 4.00, of course that assumes everything this year is normal: weather, exports, ethanol, and funds having no positions
Beans – A break in weather also applies to bean planting, Friday’s report looking more bearish beans
↓ The break in weather days 1 – 8 is likely to weigh on beans if funds are quiet like yesterday afternoon
↓ Friday’s report is expected to start carryout at 0.431, again assuming all other factors are normal such as weather, exports, crush, etc that carryout suggests a final November price of 10.80
↔Given that the bean number is expected more bearish than corn it makes sense why funds still hold a larger short position in beans, that also means when they cover shorts it is likely to be more aggressive
↔A private analyst in BRA puts the estimated bean loss due to flooding at 1.0 – 1.5 MMT, a larger short term issue may be troubles with BRA loading at ports with some ports being without power
Wheat – Lower StatsCan numbers yesterday, also looking for a bearish USDA report Friday
↑ StatsCan lowered wheat stocks at 11.8 MMT when 12.2 MMT was expected (last year was 13.9 MMT)
↓ Friday’s expected first new crop carryout of 0.786 is well over the old crop number of 0.696
↓ The forecast for spring planting areas is also mostly clear days 1 - 8
Cattle – BB up again, futures factoring in a $1 to $2 higher cash trade, waiting for first cash bids today
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.27 Select +2.59 packer BE at 187.59, packer cushion $3.33
↑ With BB up again yesterday it supports the idea that for this week at least we can expect a $1 to $2 higher cash trade, yesterday’s futures trade factored in about $1 higher
↔There were no clear signs of fund trade but in the last 2 months, funds have not been a major factor
↔Futures are maintaining a level right in line with cash expectations, not overbought/oversold
↔As it turns out, BB caught itself and added support right when it was most needed, we have every reason to still call BB as the #1 guide for cash/futures trade so let’s keep watching it closely